Calculating risk/reward in Street Fighter 4 is critical to winning against good players.  This is because during the course of the game, we are put in many situations where we have to calculate whether it’s worth taking a risk in order to land more damage to end the round or gain a substantial life lead.  Considering multiple options as well as your opponents options are and what he thinks you will do should lead you to making better decisions during the game.

The most common situation where both players must calculate risk/reward is when a character with a good wakeup Special Move gets knocked down.  These special moves include Uppercuts, Flash Kick, EX Messiah Kick, Headbutt, etc.  When you knock down one of these characters, you put yourself at risk by getting close enough to them for the opponent to consider doing a Wakeup Uppercut.  Calculating the risk/reward payoff is crucial to winning.

Here are some factors to consider when calculating whether to Wakeup Uppercut/Headbutt/etc…

• Are you up one round/one game?
  If you’re up one game or one round, you may be able to afford to take more risks because you are in the lead.  Conversely, your opponent may be playing more cautious so they may not be willing to attack as aggressively because they are already down one game/one round.
• Do you have enough meter to FADC?
  Having two EX Meters is basically a Get Out Of Jail Free card and let’s you take risks with very limited downside.  For example, Ryu can Wakeup Uppercut xx FADC and back dash to safety pretty much anywhere on the screen except the corner.  This means that if you get knocked down with two meters and an Ultra, it is probably in your favor to go for it because you can FADC back dash if they block the Uppercut.
• Do you have a life lead?  If so, will you still be in the life lead if your move whiffs/is blocked and your opponent punishes with the most damaging combo their meters (Super and Ultra) can allow?
  If you have a substantial life lead (maybe 35% or more), you can usually afford to take more risks because if your risk doesn’t pan out, you will still either have the life lead or be at even if they block and punish with their most damaging combo.

  For example, if you’re playing against Balrog and he has one meter, his most damaging combo using that meter would probably be the EX Upper Loop (LP, LP xx EX Upper, LP, LP xx Headbutt), so a wakeup Uppercut when you’re in the lead probably wouldn’t lead to game-ending damage if he blocks.  Conversely, if you’re Balrog against Rufus anywhere near the corner and you do a blocked Wakeup Headbutt, you are probably going to eat way more damage after Rufus lands a combo because you are going to be in the corner where he has the advantage.  Once Rufus gets Balrog in the corner, it’s a tough fight because he has so many ways to land the Ultra and the Dive Kick can be overwhelming.  Before doing a Wakeup Headbutt in this situation, you have to consider your position on the screen and the danger of being in the corner, not just your life lead.

• Is there a safer alternative?
  Wakeup Uppercuts can be great sometimes, but wouldn’t it be safer to throw out a D+LP?  Usually on wakeup, you’re trying to get your opponent off of you so you can regroup and a well-placed low jab can be all you need to back dash to safety or link into something else.  The risks of a low jab are usually pretty small (think of it as a 2 on a risk scale of 10, with 10 being a non-FADCable Uppercut) but buying yourself a split second and an inch of room to breathe can be the difference between winning and losing a round.
• What does your opponent expect you to do?
  If you’ve done a Wakeup Uppercut earlier in the match, maybe he’s looking for it again which may make him more likely to block and punish with a big combo.  It may sound obvious to a lot of players, but some people aren’t considering these things before they do Wakeup Uppercuts.

  Even if you haven’t done a Wakeup Uppercut before, if you’re Sagat and have two EX Meters and an Ultra, he’s probably looking for you to do a Wakeup Tiger Uppercut FADC Ultra, so he probably won’t be likely to attack which means you may want to consider not doing it.  Of course if he knows that you know that he knows that you’re looking for it…well now things just turned into a complicated Rock Paper Scissors game!

  Because going for the Uppercut in this situation isn’t very risky for him because he can FADC out of it, maybe he’ll go for something completely unexpected and just wakeup and throw.

• If it hits, will you win or at least give yourself a lead you can sit on?
  If you take the risk and it connects, will you win the round?  If not, maybe it’s not worth going for unless the life lead you’ll gain will be easy to sit on.  For example, in the Balrog vs. E. Honda matchup, if Balrog gets knocked down, Honda may want to try an Oichio Throw as he gets up.  If Balrog has an Ultra stocked, a life lead and the Headbutt -> Ultra connects, he will be able to reduce his risk by backing away to just outside sweep distance from Honda.  It’s extremely difficult for Honda to get in on Balrog (and vice versa) so he should be able to keep him out relatively easily and slowly whittle away his life with safe, low-risk attacks.